Gone with the War: How to Minimize the Negative Impacts of War-Induced Migration on Ukrainian Agriculture

Authors:

Ruslana Zadorozhna, Associate Professor of the Department of Entrepreneurship, Trade and Exchange Activity, Bila Tserkva National Agrarian University

Tetiana Stepanova, Associate Professor of the Technology of Nutrition Department, Sumy National Agrarian University

Providing food for the rapidly growing world population is one of humanity’s largest challenges. Because of this, limited natural resources—especially arable land and irrigation water—should be used rationally. Additionally, human capital, along with the skills and abilities of workers, plays an important role in agricultural production. Unfortunately, history shows many examples of irrationality and inhumanity in human activity. For instance, the Russian-Ukrainian war, which began in 2014 and escalated in 2022, has led to a significant deterioration in global food security. One of the main causes of this situation is the weakening of production capacity in Ukrainian agriculture.

Ukraine is one of the leading food producers in the world. Subsequently, agriculture plays an important role in the national economy, providing a significant part of the country’s jobs and exports (Fig. 1).

Figure 1. TOP-5 agricultural products, exported by Ukraine in 2021.

Source: FAOSTAT

Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the production capacity of Ukraine’s agricultural sector has suffered significant losses. Intense hostilities by Russia have caused soil contamination with toxic substances, heavy metals, ammunition remnants and oil products, which negatively affect the environment and agricultural production. In 2023, the Russian destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station dam created an environmental disaster over vast areas, causing large-scale flooding, soil erosion and loss of ecosystems. One of the most painful social consequences of the war has been the forced mass migration of the Ukrainian population, both within the country and abroad. Millions of Ukrainians have been forced to flee their homes, causing a significant outflow of labor, particularly from rural areas. Europe has accepted the vast majority of refugees from Ukraine (Fig. 2) and provided them with asylum and protection.

Figure 2. Ukrainian beneficiaries of temporary protection in the European countries at the end of June, 2024

According to the Eurostat, as of the end of July 2024, the largest number of Ukrainian beneficiaries of temporary protection were in Germany (1 075 225), Poland (971 585) and the Czech Republic (368 790). It should be noted that Czechia has the highest number of Ukrainian refugees per thousand of its own population among all European countries – 31.69 in June 2024 (9.39‰ in the European Union as a whole). The unexpected and massive exodus of people from Ukraine, due to the outbreak of Russian aggression in February 2022, prompted, for the first time, the European Union to activate the Directive 2001/55/EC of the Council of 20 July 2001 on minimum standards for granting temporary protection in the event of a mass influx of displaced persons and on the status of such persons. As a result, Ukrainian refugees were granted temporary protection status, which gave them several rights, including access to the labor market in the host country.

Of those Ukrainian who have fled the war to be protected in Europe, a significant number are of working age and often with higher education. Accordingly, many of them have begun to work in the countries that are temporarily sheltering them. In turn, the massive outflow of part of the economically active population has caused a tense situation in the economy and labor market in Ukraine. Ukraine’s gross domestic product and gross value of agriculture decreased by 28.8% and 25.2% respectively in 2022 compared to 2021. As agriculture is one of the leading sectors of the Ukrainian economy, it has been greatly affected by war-induced forced migration. While the downward trend in the number of employees in Ukrainian agriculture was already observed in the pre-war years, this was objectively caused by technological and organizational progress. Now, due to the Russian invasion and in turn migration and military mobilization, the agricultural labor force has declined.

The peculiarity of agricultural production is that many types of work, even mechanized or automated, are usually performed by men. Today, however, with the shortage of male workers, agricultural enterprises are forced to train and engage retired and female workers (Fig. 3).

Figure 3. Training of female tractor drivers in Snihurivka, Ukraine

Source: http://surl.li/bwkbru

To move forward, the restoration and development of Ukraine’s agricultural production needs to be based on the latest technological knowledge. Moreover, the question is not so much about restoring the production potential of agriculture from the past, as it is about creating a modernized and innovative version. A comprehensive and coordinated system of measures is needed to compensate the negative impact of damage to productive resources and loss of human resource capacity. Economic entities in the agricultural sector need to actively implement modern technologies for automating production. Optimizing business processes will help mitigate the problem of staff shortages. The issue of improving the quality of human capital is also crucial. The development of adult education has great prospects for ensuring the possibility of rapid acquisition of the necessary professional competencies. The potential for self-education with further confirmation of professional qualifications in qualification centers is also significant.

Overall, Ukraine should develop special programs to support agricultural enterprises and farmers affected by the negative effects of migration. These programs should include subsidies for the renewal of fixed assets, soft loans, tax breaks and so on. An important prerequisite for the restoration of Ukrainian agriculture is the return of Ukrainians forced to leave because of the war. Therefore, targeted programs are also needed to support the return of migrants and attract them to work or do business in the agricultural sector. The comprehensive implementation of these measures will not only minimize the negative effects of migration but will also provide conditions for the development of modern and competitive agricultural production in Ukraine.

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